Your assumption is correct. Your stream implementation is slower than the for-loop.
This stream usage should be as fast as the for-loop though:
EXCLUDE_PATHS.stream()
.map(String::toLowerCase)
.anyMatch(path::contains);
This iterates through the items, applying String::toLowerCase and the filter to the items one-by-one and terminating at the first item that matches.
Both collect() & anyMatch() are terminal operations. anyMatch() exits at the first found item, though, while collect() requires all items to be processed.