Is there hard evidence of the ROI of unit testing?

Yes. This is a link to a study by Boby George and Laurie Williams at NCST and a another by Nagappan et al. I’m sure there are more. Dr. Williams publications on testing may provide a good starting point for finding them.

[EDIT] The two papers above specifically reference TDD and show 15-35% increase in initial development time after adopting TDD, but a 40-90% decrease in pre-release defects. If you can’t get at the full text versions, I suggest using Google Scholar to see if you can find a publicly available version.

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