An array access expression has two sub-expressions:
An array access expression contains two subexpressions, the array reference expression (before the left bracket) and the index expression (within the brackets).
The two sub-expressions are evaluated before the array access expression itself, in order to evaluate the expression.
After evaluating the two sub-expressions
nada()[index = 2]++;
becomes
null[2]++;
Only now the expression is evaluated and the NullPointerException is thrown.
This is consistent with the evaluation of most expressions in Java (the only counter examples I can think of are short circuiting operators such as && and ||).
For example, if you make the following method call:
firstMethod().secondMethod(i = 2);
First you evaluate firstMethod() and i = 2, and only later you throw NullPointerException if firstMethod() evaluated to null.