We’re in the same situation too now. No Google Analytics set up, need to run some ads this weekend, so I’m going to try to use UTM tags to track the app installs.
There may be a difference between visits to tagged links from a PC vs.
from the Play Store app on a device.
Found this in their documentation
“Note: Over-the-air and web (play.google.com) impressions aren’t
tracked on your app’s User Acquisition page at this time.”
If you want, send the link over and I can test it out.