I had this same exact error after upgrading my Xcode from 4.2.x? to 4.3.1 via the app store. I did not upgrade my OS or any hardware, and my certificates were only about 2 months old. I has submitted an app update just days before this starting happening and I feel 100% sure that something in the Xcode upgrade caused it to happen.
After a few days fiddling with it by rejecting my developer certificates and updating all the apps and provisions profiles, as well as distribution profiles. I noticed something.. See screen shot.
The certificate that I was signing the app with was in the group “Identities with out Provisioning Profiles” I went back into the developer provisioning portal and downloaded the distribution certificate for my app, and added to my system, then updated the code signing identity with the correct certificate and I was able to get past this issue.
In short this message may suggest, you signed the archive with the wrong certificate. check it and make sure its the one for your app for distribution and it should work.
Happy Programing!